Biden Pulls Ahead in FiveThirtyEight Forecast

Trump's Lead Narrows as Biden Gains Ground

Polling Averages Show Biden With Slight Edge

FiveThirtyEight's 2024 election forecast now gives Joe Biden a 12-in-100 chance of winning the national popular vote by 10 percentage points. This represents a significant shift from just a few months ago, when Donald Trump held a clear lead. The forecast is based on a combination of polls that are updated daily.

Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race by using data from national and battleground state polls. We update the average for each candidate daily, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology, and house effects.

To win the 2024 presidential election, a candidate will need to secure 270 electoral votes. Our interactive map allows you to create your own election forecast by clicking on the states you believe will vote for each candidate.